Try to figure out who will vote for Republicans and who won’t by the estimates it becomes obvious if you do the math.
There are 207,643,594 eligible voters in the U.S. The census bureau estimates as of July of last year we have the US total population at 303,824,640. As of the 2006 general election the Voting Age Population (all adults) was 225,964,346 whereas the Voter Eligible Population (adults - ineligible people like felons or non-citizens) was 207,643,594; out of these approximately 150 million will cast their votes. 131 million who voted in 2008. But the number might increase significantly in the 2012 elections due to the state of the economy and the Republican agenda to destroy the middle class.
We only have to look at how some groups voted in 2008 to form some kind of an educated opinion as to what will happen in the 2012 elections.
Black Americans: 95% of black voters went to the ballot for Obama
Whites: 55% of white votes went to McCain including the notoriously hard-to-win white working class vote, but Obama stunned many by taking an impressive 43% of total white votes
Hispanics: 66% of Hispanic voters turned out for Obama
Women: 56% of the female vote went to Obama
Men: The male vote was essentially tied with 49% voting for Obama,
Asians: 63% of Asian voters went to the ballot for Obama
Jews: 78% of the Jewish vote went to Obama
Senior Citizens: 51% of over- 65's voted for McCain
Gays: 1.51% of the total U.S. population identifies themselves as gay, lesbian or bisexual, or 4.3 total million Americans. These numbers are based on figures provided by a broad-based coalition of gay rights organizations and homosexual advocacy groups*. The primary source cited was the The National Health and Social Life Survey (NHSLS), published in the book The Social Organization of Sex: Sexual Practices in the United States (1994), by Laumann, Gagnon, Michael and Michaels.
Muslims: 1,424,000 – voting data not available.
Union members: The number of American workers in unions declined sharply last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday, with the percentage slipping to 11.9 percent, the lowest rate in more than 70 years.
The report found that the number of workers in unions fell by 612,000 last year to 14.7 million, an even larger decrease than the overall 417,000 decline in the total number of Americans working.
So, if we take these figures and do a bit of speculation we can come up with this:
Blacks: 34,000,000 22,440,000 eligible voters 90% will vote for Obama = 20,196,000
Whites: 211,460,626 137,410,000 eligible voters 50% will vote for Obama – 68,000,000
Hispanics: 35,305,818 19,417,000 eligible voters 66% will vote for Obama = 12,815,000
Women: 145,532,800 96,051,000 eligible voters 56% will vote for Obama = 53,788,000
Men: 139,267,200 60,523,000 eligible voters 48% will vote for Obama = 43,451,000
Asians: 10,242,998 6,657,000 eligible voters 63% will vote for Obama = 26.422,800
Muslim: 1,424,000 939,840 eligible voters 90% will vote for Obama = 845,000
Gays: 4,300,000 2,838,000 eligible voters 90% will vote for Obama = 2,554,200
Jewish: 3,702,400 2,443,584 eligible voters 78% will vote for Obama = 1,905,955
Union Members: 14,700,000 9,702,000 eligible voters 82% will vote for Obama = 6523,000
TOTAL: 135,489,955
Assuming that the turn out is 66% and not taking into consideration the senior vote which it is likely to go this time overwhelmingly for Obama due to their Social Security and Medicare-Medicaid having been targeted by Republicans; we would have approximately 89,423,000 possible votes for Obama. Even if the turnout is light and there is massive election rigging and disenfranchising of voters in the hands of Republicans there should be at the very least a number similar to the votes cast in 2008 = 131,000,000
Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, above left, signed a law in May requiring voters to show photo identification.
Other factors that could alter the election one way or another are yet to be determined, like the economy getting worse or better; the Occupy Wall Street resurgence in the Spring; the possibility of an unforeseen conflict in the Middle East or even a terrorist attack on our soil.
This table lists some major demographic groupings in the United States. Race, gender, ethnicity, religion, and other factors are factors in personal and group identity. This table is unusual in that it presents a merged list of these factors. This more accurately reflects actual American society, in which most people belong to more than one group. All individuals can be classified into multiple groupings below. This list is not comprehensive.
Group | Number | Percent of U.S. population |
Total 1 | 284,800,000 | 100.0 % |
English-at-home speakers 6 | 245,497,600 | 86.2 % |
Christian 2 | 217,872,000 | 76.5 % |
White 1 | 211,460,626 | 75.1 % |
Protestant 18 | 150,944,000 | 53 % |
Female 1 | 145,532,800 | 51.1 % |
Male 1 | 139,267,200 | 48.9 % |
"born-again" or "evangelical" 9 | 125,312,000 | 44 % |
Republican 8 | 90,950,000 | 33 % |
Democrat 8 | 85,440,000 | 31 % |
Catholic 2 | 69,776,000 | 24.5 % |
Non-English speakers 6 | 38,087,127 | 13.8 % |
Nonreligious 2 | 37,593,600 | 13.2 % |
Hispanic/Latino 1 | 35,305,818 | 12.5 % |
Black 1 | 34,658,190 | 12.3 % |
Baptist 18 | 34,176,000 | 12 % |
Evangelical (theologically) 16 | 22,049,360 | 8.0 % |
Methodist 2 | 19,366,400 | 6.8 % |
Spanish speakers 6 | 20,744,986 | 7.5 % |
Southern Baptist 3 | 15,800,000 | 5.6 % |
Lutheran 2 | 13,100,800 | 4.6 % |
vegetarian 19 | 12,000,000 | 4.2 % |
Asian 1 | 10,242,998 | 3.6 % |
United Methodist Church 20 | 8,251,042 | 2.9 % |
Presbyterian 2 | 7,689,600 | 2.7 % |
Multiracial 1 | 6,826,228 | 2.4 % |
Pentecostal 2 | 5,980,800 | 2.1 % |
Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormons) 15 | 5,503,192 | 1.93 % |
Evangelical Lutheran Church in America 3, 20 | 5,038,066 | 1.8 % |
Episcopalian 2 | 4,841,600 | 1.7 % |
GLBT (gay, lesbian or bisexual)5 | 4,300,000 | 1.51 % |
Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) 3, 20 | 3,595,259 | 1.3 % |
Judaism 2, 21 | 3,702,400 | 1.3 % |
Eastern Orthodox 9 | 2,756,170 | 1 % |
Assemblies of God 11 | 2,575,000 | 0.93 % |
Lutheran Church - Missouri Synod 3, 20 | 2,512,714 | 0.9 % |
Native American 1 | 2,475,956 | 0.9 % |
Buddhist 13 | 2,400,000 | 0.87 % |
Episcopal Church 20 | 2,333,628 | 0.82 % |
French speakers 6 | 2,308,795 | 0.8 % |
gay men5 | 2,000,000 | 0.70 % |
Non-denominational 11 | 2,000,000 | 0.7 % |
prison population | 2,000,000 | 0.7 % |
German speakers 6 | 1,851,418 | 0.7 % |
Megachurch attendance 14 | 1,800,000 | 0.64 % |
Jehovah's Witnesses 2 | 1,708,800 | 0.6 % |
Chinese speakers 6 | 1,578,099 | 0.6 % |
Italian speakers 6 | 1,565,165 | 0.6 % |
Churches of Christ (non-instrumental / Corsicana, TX) 20 | 1,500,000 | 0.53 % |
American Baptist Church in the U.S.A. 20 | 1,484,291 | 0.52 % |
African Methodist Episcopal Zion Church 20 | 1,430,795 | 0.50 % |
Muslim 2 | 1,424,000 | 0.5 % |
agnostic 2 | 1,424,000 | 0.5 % |
bisexual5 | 1,400,000 | 0.49 % |
United Church of Christ 20 | 1,330,985 | 0.47 % |
Baptist Bible Fellowship International 20 | 1,200,000 | 0.42 % |
atheists 2, 10 | 1,139,200 | 0.4 % |
Tagolog speakers 6 | 1,008,542 | 0.4 % |
Independent Christian Church, Churches of Christ (instrumental / Joplin, MO) 20 | 1,071,616 | 0.39 % |
Hindu 13 | 1,000,000 | 0.36 % |
Church of God (Cleveland, TN) 20 | 944,857 | 0.33 % |
Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) 11 | 910,000 | 0.33 % |
lesbians5 | 900,000 | 0.32 % |
Polish speakers 6 | 865,298 | 0.3 % |
Unitarian Universalist 2 | 854,400 | 0.3 % |
Seventh-day Adventists 11 | 809,000 | 0.29 % |
Neo-pagan (incl. Wiccans) 12 | 768,400 | 0.28 % |
Korean speakers 6 | 749,278 | 0.3 % |
Church of the Nazarene 11 | 608,000 | 0.2 % |
Vietnamese speakers 6 | 606,463 | 0.2 % |
vegans 22 | 591,468 | 0.2 % |
Portuguese speakers 6 | 515,017 | 0.2 % |
Japanese speakers 6 | 511,485 | 0.2 % |
Pacific Islander 1 | 398,835 | 0.1 % |
Reformed Church in America (RCA) 11 | 304,000 | 0.11 % |
Libertarian party members 7 | 200,000 | 0.07 % |
Baha'i 11 | 142,000 | 0.05 % |
Native American Religionist 2 | 120,735 | 0.04 % |
Mennonite Church USA 23 | 110,000 | .036 % |
It should be very difficult to visualize a scenario where those that have been thrown under the bus by the Republican Party will vote Republican. I have said this before: “Who the fuck do they have left other than the Evangelicals, racists, homophobes, and the very wealthy?
I think that the most important thing to keep in mind is that we have to be vigilant and challenge any and all attempts by Republicans to disenfranchise voters and destroy our democratic process.
SOURCES: http://wiki.answers.com
U.S. Census Bureau. Year 2000 Census. URL: http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-1.pdf
* The primary source cited was the The National Health and Social Life Survey (NHSLS), published in the book The Social Organization of Sex: Sexual Practices in the United States (1994), by Laumann, Gagnon, Michael and Michaels.
* The primary source cited was the The National Health and Social Life Survey (NHSLS), published in the book The Social Organization of Sex: Sexual Practices in the United States (1994), by Laumann, Gagnon, Michael and Michaels.
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